Nuclear War?
What is the chance of a world ending nuclear war? It is definitively higher than it was a week ago.
The Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists set the Doomsday Clock at 100 seconds to midnight and has continued this setting at every meeting since 2020. They set the clock considering the nuclear risk, climate change, and disruptive technologies. They are meeting again the first week of march to consider resetting the clock, because of the invasion of Ukraine and the world’s reaction.
People versed in international geopolitics and history say that we have a one percent chance since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Many also agree that if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and or the United States (US) become directly involved in combat of any sort with Russia, the chance of nuclear war goes up exponentially.
Negotiation
Ninety percent of all nuclear weapons are in the control of the US and Russia. During the cold war, we had Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD). Would it be prudent to say we still have that today? Yes, but do we still have the type of people who would act rationally and solve problems at a negotiating table?
During the Cuban Missile Crisis, President Kennedy had to give up land-based missiles in Turkey to help convince the Russians we were serious about negotiating an end to the crisis. Russia’s grievance and their reaction to establish nuclear missiles in Cuba was taken seriously. The threat alone of the heightened alert status of our nuclear forces, and the threat of invasion of Cuba, was not enough. They gave soviet First Secretary Khrushchev an off ramp to help deal with any critics in Russia who may oppose a negotiated settlement.
Is it even possible, in the US’s current political climate, to negotiate let alone for the President to give something up or admit Russia has a viable grievance? The press and social media would accuse the President, no matter the party of weakness for negotiating with Russia.
We have grown too comfortable with our absolute aggressive postures. We accept no downside since the end of the Cold War and advent of being the only superpower.
We have learned recently from aggression in the press, social media and other institutions that negotiating is not an option, nuance is dead, and paths to redemption are closed. This all-or-nothing approach closes the door to any negotiations for governments or individuals who made mistakes, no matter how grievous and no matter the arena. We cannot use cancel culture on non western world leaders.
Trying to cancel people who are not expressing the corporate media narrative or US government propaganda is harmful. Questions being asked by reporters for evidence about statements by the government are not tantamount to being a Russian asset. Positing the idea that direct combat intervention by the US could start World War III and would increase the chances of nuclear war is not idiotic or pedantic.
Not negotiating with terrorists is one thing. Not negotiating with a fellow nuclear power is another matter. Some people think Putin has gone mad. Is it worth backing a madman into a corner and risking nuclear war? Risking a nuclear conflict by America or NATO troops, planes or ships being in direct combat with Russian forces is insane.
Why are people confident that Putin will not follow through on his threat? The possibility of him having new technology upgrades that will allow a couple of missiles through our defense shield is low. However, we know that both sides’ strategy for first strike includes launching multiple missiles at every target. Can our systems handle that? Are the Russians able to arm their hypersonic missiles yet? Do they have anti satellite capabilities yet? These risks are real and the confidence in answering these questions must be high. We must be one hundred percent accurate in our assessments of risk, even a singular nuclear attack.
What if he only launches a tactical nuke on Kyiv if he is losing and gets backed into a corner tactically and or economically? What risk should we take to respond?
Ukranians
How about the Ukrainian people? I care about the Ukrainian people. I selfishly care more about the prospects of what could happen to Americans. If the Ukrainian people and the individual countries of Europe are not able or willing to solve this crisis, then I am sorry I have my family to think about.
This does not make me an “America first” type. The number of people I know who talk about America first, but support intervention is amazing. If they are America first, why not think a few moves ahead about the possible nuclear annihilation of your fellow Americans?
Sanctions
Can I care about the Russian people? I do. The track record of American sanctions toppling governments around the world is horrible. Sanctions are very effective at expanding poverty, famine, humanitarian health crisis, and expanding income disparity between the haves and have not in the sanctioned country. They normally use sanctions as propaganda for hate America campaigns and they work on enough people to keep the status quo.
The sanctioning of Russia and cutoff of Ukraine has world markets in chaos and several countries are looking at possible famine, or breakdowns in industry because of the sanctions. Most of these countries are not in the best position economically or politically and this could lead to more geopolitical turmoil for the US and Europe. They will lean towards China or ignore sanctions by the western governments. This will lead to a larger black market and increase the power of Putin and the Oligarchs.
In Russia, most of the oligarchs became wealthy from ill-gotten gains after the collapse of the Soviet Union. They took over government assets by force and sold military equipment. They also ran drug and human trafficking organizations. Just because most have what looks like legitimate assets now does not mean they don’t have illicit connections.
Their ties to organized crime will allow them to move money and assets around the world and still use Russia as a physical safe haven. They will not rise up against Putin and he will need their connections to launder resources in world markets.
The Russian people have never been in a good position liberally with their government. Sanctions on the government and oligarchs will damage them the most.
The Arms Race
Since the beginning of the nuclear arms race, we, the world, have been in a no-win situation.
We are lucky the North Korea regime, so far, only looks to keep their status quo and not throw their infantile but dangerous nuclear weight around. Pakistan and India are now in the MAD situation and hopefully it will help keep them mostly peaceful.
Other nations with known nuclear weapons are part of western liberal cultures and alliances.
Russia is an exception. We have to relearn how to negotiate with an aggressive non terrorist state that has a world ending nuclear arsenal. Sanctions alone will not prevent their aggression and direct combat could truly be fatal for both sides.
How do we punish the government of a nuclear armed state run by a “mad man?” We may not be able to.
I know one thing. We, the regular people, are the ones who feel the most pain from the actions of governments all over this very connected world.
Well written